The house always wins, how the establishment finally came out on top in Thailand
The Establishment’s Triumph in Thailand’s Political Shift
Thailand’s political landscape has undergone a significant transformation as the conservative elite reclaimed power after a quarter-century of upheaval. The recent general elections marked the first time since 2001 that the ruling parties associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra faced a major defeat, signaling the end of his influence. Now incarcerated, Thaksin watches his once-dominant political dynasty wane, with his party struggling to maintain its former momentum.
A Political Dynasty in Decline
Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire businessman and former soccer team owner, reshaped Thailand’s governance twice as its leader. His support base, particularly in the northeastern region, gave his affiliated parties an edge in elections, ensuring victories for nearly two decades. However, this dominance has now crumbled, with the conservative establishment emerging victorious for the first time since the 1990s.
Thaksin’s rise was fueled by promises of rural development, universal healthcare, and farmer subsidies, which earned him a loyal following. Yet, his populist agenda clashed with traditional power structures, including military leaders, royalists, and business elites. These groups viewed him as a threat, leading to multiple coups, legal battles, and court interventions aimed at dismantling his political legacy.
The Battle for Power
Thaksin’s political journey was defined by conflict. In 2006, he was ousted by a military coup and sentenced to prison for corruption, fleeing the country for 15 years. His supporters, known as the Red Shirts, protested in 2010, but the demonstrations were violently suppressed. Despite his absence, his influence persisted, with allied parties continuing to win elections.
His dramatic return in 2023 coincided with a shift in Thailand’s political dynamics. A progressive movement had gained traction, challenging longstanding norms and advocating for reforms. However, Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party formed a coalition with the military, sidelining the reformists and restoring the traditional order. Analysts suggest this move was a strategic compromise to secure his release from prison.
Consequences of a Strategic Betrayal
“Since the Thaksin challenge burst onto the scene in the early 2000s, the whole Thai political game has been about resisting this juggernaut, and resisting progress and reform of the establishment,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University.
Thaksin’s return was accompanied by a reduced prison sentence, following a royal pardon. Critics argued this was an unfair advantage, as he served much of his time in a VIP hospital. The incident deepened public distrust, with many supporters feeling betrayed. The culmination of this disillusionment came when Thaksin’s daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was ousted over an ethics breach tied to a leaked conversation with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen.
In the latest election, Pheu Thai’s performance in key regions like Chiang Mai—Thaksin’s birthplace and political stronghold—was particularly weak, with the party securing no seats. This outcome underscores a broader trend of shifting allegiances and the establishment’s successful reassertion of control after years of turmoil.